Vancouver Real Estate Statistics - January 2017
Months of Inventory (MOI) for Vancouver West detached homes fell to 6.59 months in December - right in the middle of a "balanced" market range. Apartments and attached homes saw their MOI rise but both remain well under 5 months in "Seller's" market territory.
Active listings volumes remained persistently low for most of 2016. These low active listing volumes helped facilitate huge price gains in 2016.
Sales volumes fell to 237 homes in December 2016 for Westside apartments. This is within a pretty typical range for December sales in the past decade. Attached homes sales volumes dropped to 64 in December which is the low side of typical. The most dramatic sales volumes drop was for detached homes on the Westside. They fell to only 23 homes - the lowest monthly sales since the middle of the Credit Crisis in Januay 2009 when only 14 homes were sold.
In September I predicted that we would see average pricing for detached homes fall by 20% from their high point by December and then rebound in the Spring. Average sale prices for houses did fall 18% between the months of July (their high point) and October 2016. They rebounded to about only 12% down as of December from the July high point. In spite of low sales volumes I think we may see house prices continue to slowly recover into the Spring.
The Real Estate Board's HPI Price for the Westside shows a more modest reduction in prices for the "typical" home.
The median price per square foot more closely resembles the average price changes.
We should have some sense of how much influence Chinese capital will have in 2017 in Vancouver by February. Lunar New Year is January 28th and the Chinese national holidays that follow it have typically been the flash point for Spring markets over the recent past.
My prediction for 2017 is not to expect the price increases of 2016 but similarly don't expect the sky to fall. Those of you aiming to sell who have spoken with me know that we should be aiming for February/March to begin listing.
*Remember that Months of Inventory (MOI) is a measure derived from the number of active listings during a given month divided by the number of sales that month. It indicates the theoretical length of time it would take to sell all of the properties on the market if nothing changed. Historically, 0-5 months of inventory has generally implied upward price pressure ("Seller's Market") for the ensuing six months, 5-8 months ("Balanced Market") of inventory meant a flat market with respect to pricing and over 8 months of inventory ("Buyer's Market") has, for the most part, precipitated downward price pressure.
By Sam Wyatt - Vancouver Realtor