Vancouver Real Estate Report - January - MOI OVER 14 MONTHS!
In my last report I speculated that the Months of Inventory (MOI) for detached homes would remain fairly similar, for December, to what it had been in November at about 11 months. With only 49 sales and nearly 700 active listings, the MOI in December for Vancouver detached Westside homes jumped to over 14 months, the highest it has been since the credit crisis! The MOI rose for apartments to just under 10 months but did remain stable for the attached market at 7.67 months. The detached homes months of inventory figure can only be seen as a worrying confirmation of the state of Vancouver's real estate market.
Remember that Months of Inventory (MOI) is a measure derived from the number of active listings during a given month divided by the number of sales that month. It indicates the theoretical length of time it would take to sell all of the properties on the market if nothing changed. Historically, 0-5 months of inventory has generally implied upward price pressure for the ensuing six months, 5-8 months of inventory meant a flat market with respect to pricing and over 8 months of inventory has, for the most part, precipitated downward price pressure.
The typical market trend is for December to be the low point for active listing volumes and for the peak of listing volumes to be somewhere between June and September. Similarly, sales volumes are generally lowest in December/January and peak sometime in the spring. It is probable that the MOI will fall for a couple of months only to see the spring sales volume increases peter out and rising listings volumes drive the number back up by late summer.
Only hindsight will allow us to know how things will turn out. Perhaps we will see a new influx of Chinese buying or maybe the economy will suddenly take off. More probably, months of inventory will continue its upward trend and prices will continue to fall.
SELLERS (especially of detached houses): Act decisively and price below the previous sales comparables. In this market, a quick sale is the sale that will get you the most for your property. If you bought your a house in 2009 or earlier, chances are that you will be making a good profit - so sell quickly to capture more of it. If you bought in 2010 there is a still a possibility that you may break even - ACT NOW. If you bought in 2011 or 2012 you will probably be loosing money - the faster you sell the more you will mitigate your loss. PLEASE DO NOT HESITATE TO CALL ME FOR A PROPERTY EVALUATION.
BUYERS: You have a huge inventory to choose from and plenty of vendors willing (or those who are compelled by circumstance) to negotiate in earnest. If you need a long term home it is a fun time to be shopping (though tiring with so much to see).
I am presently selling a boutique development of 12 homes in Fairview Slopes that includes two bedroom and den townhomes with roof-decks (great views) and several studio apartments (inquire about the genuine investment opportunity here). I am pleased to be offering brand new construction at prices that reflect the market we are in. If you are interested please register at: www.aldercrossing.com or give me a call.
Do not hesitate to call me if you have any questions and please pass this and my contact information along to any friends or family who might benefit from my services.
By Sam Wyatt - Vancouver Realtor