October Real Estate Update: Attached and Condos Feel the Chill
For the first time in over 6 months, the Months of Inventory (MOI) metric for Westside Vancouver houses dropped slightly. It had risen from 4.39 in February to 13.27 in August and in September sat at 12.14. The big news for September is that both attached homes and apartments rose again, now to over 10 months of inventory.
It might be that Months of Inventory has crested for detached homes but my sense is that it is still likely to get worse. There were 86 houses sold on the Westside in September which is up from 75 in August but such a paltry number of sales can hardly be considered an improvement. Even as sales improved, active listings increased from 995 in August to 1044 in September. The average price of detached homes fell to $2,259,214.
Apartments and attached homes are now really beginning to feel the chill of this falling market. With MOI over 10 months for each of these home types, we can expect to see prices fall. In fact, the average price of an attached westside home has fallen to its lowest point since June of 2009 to $749,668.
Sales success ratios for the westside are still only about 30% which means that the vast majority of listings fail to sell. If you want to sell, you will need to price BELOW the most recent comparable sales prices and you need to do this from the very beginning of the listing. If you don't do this, your listing will almost certainly stagnate. I continue to succeed in making sales happen with this technique.
BUYERS: More sellers are recognizing the change in this market and beginning to negotiate in earnest.
INVESTORS: I am now selling a development in Fairview Slopes that includes several studio apartments starting at $269,900 with projected rents that will create a cash flow positive return from day one. If you are interested please register at: www.aldercrossing.com or give me a call.
Remember that Months of Inventory (MOI) is a measure derived from the number of active listings during a given month divided by the number of sales that month. It indicates the theoretical length of time it would take to sell all of the properties on the market if nothing changed. Historically, 0-5 months of inventory has generally implied upward price pressure for the ensuing six months, 5-8 months of inventory meant a flat market with respect to pricing and over 8 months of inventory has, for the most part, precipitated downward price pressure.
Do not hesitate to call me if you have any questions and please pass this and my contact information along to any friends or family who might benefit from my services.
By Sam Wyatt - Vancouver Realtor