Blog by Sam Wyatt Personal Real Estate Corporation

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Everest 2012 & June Market Update

I am very pleased to report that I reached the summit of Everest at 6am on May 19th 2012 via its North East Ridge and my climbing partner Steve Curtis arrived shortly thereafter.  I can now legitimately lay claim to RE/MAX's slogan: I am "ABOVE THE CROWD" ;-).  The two pictures below are of me after getting back to Advance Base Camp from the summit and on the summit with the Sri Chinmoy World Harmony Run Peace Torch.  My heartfelt thanks to everyone for your prayers and support during my climb.

I wish that I could speak as enthusiastically about the Vancouver real estate market.  Unfortunately the market has only gotten worse while I have been away.  Over the last several months, the Months of Inventory (MOI) metric has risen for all of Vancouver's market types.  In particular, the Vancouver west detached house market's MOI has risen to 8.75 months.  More disturbing is that there were 1067 active listings for detached Westside houses in May, a number higher even than in September 2008 during the height of the credit crisis when 1056 homes were listed.  Average sale prices for detached homes have also fallen, and substantially.  In December 2011 the average sale price for a Westside detached home hit a record high of $2,790,934.  In April it was only $2,258,146 and in May it fell again to $2,236,888.  The drop in average sales prices between December 2011 and May 2012 is nearly 20%.

The apartment and attached markets have fared a little better but as I have explained in detail in past emails, we are in a top down market.  That means that our price increases have been mostly created as a result of price pressure from the top of the market and it now appears that the pressure has been released by an onslaught of listings in the Westside detached market.  I would definitely bet on the market as a whole feeling the pain of lower prices soon.  I know you've heard this before and all I can say is that the statistics are only getting worse.  

If you have already sold out of this market (a lot of you have), congratulations!  If you are living happily ever after in a family home you can afford, don't worry.  If you are thinking of selling within the next couple of years, act fast, sell NOW and price aggressively by pricing lower than the last comparable sale.  The pain you feel now will be more than offset by the sigh of relief you feel later as you watch prices continue to fall.

Remember that Months of Inventory (MOI) is a measure derived from the number of active listings during a given month divided by the number of sales that month. It indicates the theoretical length of time it would take to sell all of the properties on the market if nothing changed. Historically, 0-5 months of inventory has generally implied upward price pressure for the ensuing six months, 5-8 months of inventory meant a flat market with respect to pricing and over 8 months of inventory has, for the most part, precipitated downward price pressure.

Do not hesitate to call me if you have any questions and please pass this and my contact information along to any friends or family who might benefit from my services.
By Sam Wyatt - Vancouver Realtor
Chart - Inventory.jpg
Chart - Avg Prices - Jan '08 -_.jpg
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