Last month the Months of Inventory (MOI) for detached homes on the Westside of Vancouver jumped from 4.95 months in August to 7.91 for the month of September. October's Detached MOI has now dropped to 6.89 allaying fears that the market was about to see a steep fall. Months of Inventory also fell for Apartments from 6.21 to 5.7 but Attached homes saw the metric rise from 5.69 to 6.4. Average monthly sale prices fell marginally across all market types in October.
The Months of Inventory numbers have by and large decreased since last month but they are still relatively high compared to the preceding 12 months. One should expect to see a subdued market over the next few months with stable to falling prices.
The larger context for Vancouver's real estate market is the slow motion sovereign debt crisis that continues to unfold in Europe and the prospect of global recession. To what extent this will affect money from abroad, particularly China, from continuing to feed Vancouver's market is unknown but one could reasonably assume a mitigating effect.
Remember that Months of Inventory” (MOI) is a measure derived from the number of active listings during a given month divided by the number of sales that month. It indicates the theoretical length of time it would take to sell all of the properties on the market if nothing changed. Historically, 0-5 months of inventory has generally implied upward price pressure for the ensuing six months, 5-8 months of inventory meant a flat market with respect to pricing and over 8 months of inventory has, for the most part, precipitated downward price pressure.
Do not hesitate to call me if you have any questions and please pass this and my contact information along to any friends or family who might benefit from my services.
- Sam Wyatt - Vancouver Realtor