Vancouver Real Estate February Statistics Review
It has been nice to see a change in the news about the Vancouver real estate market and some of the good news is well deserved. Sales volumes have increased substantially (doubled) over last month’s but to put it into perspective, sales are still significantly lower than they where February 2008. Here is a snapshot of what is happening.
Remember that: “Months of Inventory” is a measure derived from the number of active listings during a given month divided by the number of sales that month. It indicates the theoretical length of time it would take to sell all of the properties on the market if nothing changed. Historically, 0-6 months of inventory has meant generally upward price pressure for the ensuing six months, 6-8 months of inventory meant a flat market with respect to pricing and over 8 months of inventory has precipitated downward price pressure.
February's sharp increase in sales coupled with tseveral months of down trending listing volumes has brought our “months of inventory” index down to below 8 in Vancouver's westside* for detached homes and apartments but only to just under 11 for attached homes. As a result, and if this continues, we can reasonably expect to see prices decline far more slowly over the next six months than they have over the last six months. Average prices have dropped (depending on what you use for the high and low points) about 20% since their high points in early 2008. If the current inventory index continues at and below 8 it may foretell signs of a bottom and certainly an end to the sharp decline in prices.
As an interesting aside, the unprecedented low interest rates that are available at present are certainly having an influence on sales but what long term effect they may be having on forestalling a larger market drop is unknown to me. This monetary policy will surely have some effect for better or worse in the long run.
Sam Wyatt, Vancouver Realtor.
*Downtown, Kitsilano, Fairview, Point Grey, Dunbar, Kerrisdale etc.
