Blog by Sam Wyatt Personal Real Estate Corporation

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Vancouer Real Estate: Only Getting Worse

The Months of Inventory (MOI) metric for Westside Vancouver houses rose for the sixth consecutive month in August.  It has risen from 4.39 in February to 13.27 in AugustAttached homes rose to 8.15 and apartments rose to over 8.45 months of inventory. 

Chart - Inventory Jan 08 -_.jpg 

Things will not "get back to normal in the fall when everyone has settled back in"; in fact they will likely continue to get a lot worse.  Active listing volumes for detached Westside houses did drop slightly, to under 1000 listings and stood at 995 on August 31st, but sales dropped further to only 75 homes this month.  The average prices are actually up in the Westside; ironically, the very homes that have brought the average prices up sold for huge discounts off their list prices.  Two homes priced at nearly $14,000,000 and $16,000,000 each sold for about $12,000,000The year-to-date listing success ratio for detached homes is only 33% while a year ago this time it was nearly double at 59%.  This means that only 33% of listings are actually selling.

Chart - Avg Prices - Jan '08 -_.jpg

I continue to receive calls from people whose homes are listed for sale with other realtors asking me to help them sell their homes.  If you want to sell, you will need to price BELOW the most recent comparable sales prices and you need to do this from the very beginning of the listing.  If you don't do this, your listing will almost certainly stagnate.  I have been selling homes over the past few months using this methodology in a market where most homes are not selling at all - most for over asking or at full price.   

BUYERS:  If you have 3 dogs and a growing family, you'll likely need to buy even as prices fall.  Fortunately, there are more homes to choose from than almost anytime in the past and there are genuine opportunities to negotiate hard.

Chart - Avg Prices - REBGV.jpg

INVESTORS:  Times have been hard for investor buyers in Vancouver but I will soon be selling a development in Fairview Slopes that includes several studio apartments with projected rents that will create a cash flow positive return from day 1.  More to come soon.  If you are interested please register at: www.aldercrossing.com

Remember that Months of Inventory (MOI) is a measure derived from the number of active listings during a given month divided by the number of sales that month. It indicates the theoretical length of time it would take to sell all of the properties on the market if nothing changed. Historically, 0-5 months of inventory has generally implied upward price pressure for the ensuing six months, 5-8 months of inventory meant a flat market with respect to pricing and over 8 months of inventory has, for the most part, precipitated downward price pressure.

Do not hesitate to call me if you have any questions and please pass this and my contact information along to any friends or family who might benefit from my services.

SAM WYATT - VANCOUVER REALTOR

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